Cotton prices are rising! Can we keep it later?
Recently, the domestic cotton price has been rising for a long time. In May, the contract of Zheng Mian (the cotton contract traded in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, commonly known as "Zheng mian") rose by 500-600 yuan / ton in total, basically standing at 11000 yuan / ton or more.
What about stock?
According to the feedback of traders in Shandong, Hebei and other places, as of April 13, the quotation of "double 28" hand picking cotton and picking goods in Xinjiang was 11500-11600 yuan / ton (public weight, with tickets), some of which reached 11800 yuan / ton, up nearly 700 yuan / ton compared with last Monday (6).
Why does cotton price rise? Cotton beach towel manufactuer - Jinan wintex , www.cnponchotowels.com
Last week, the spread of the epidemic in Europe slowed down, OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries initially agreed to reduce production, the overall price of international commodities rebounded, and cotton prices at home and abroad rose.
This has played a stimulating role in the market, especially after the Spring Festival this year, the international stock market and oil price are the main targets. The rebound of oil price caused the rebound of Zheng cotton.
At present, Zheng cotton has recovered to more than 11000 yuan / ton, and the spot goods are also boosted, so traders take the opportunity to raise prices. A trader in Shandong said Monday that the current cost of cotton is more than 1000 yuan / ton. If you have a chance, you will try your best to protect the price.
What is the price of cotton in the later period?
Does this price increase indicate that cotton will usher in spring? Perhaps it should be pessimistic:
01
Increase in cotton production
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the announcement on improving Xinjiang cotton target price policy, and the target price of Xinjiang cotton will remain 18600 yuan / ton from 2020 to 2022. If Xinjiang cotton farmers eat a "reassuring pill", their enthusiasm for cotton growing is greatly increased.
At the same time, the spring sowing work is on schedule, and the domestic cotton planting area will not be significantly reduced this year. It is expected that this year's cotton area in Xinjiang will maintain the level in 2019, with the unit yield rising and the cost decreasing, which will be unfavorable to the cotton price in 2020.
02
Enterprise "no single to do"
The global epidemic is still intensifying, and more and more countries are closed to the outside world.
Recently, many textile and clothing traders introduced that since April alone, foreign trade orders have been reduced by more than 50%, reaching 70% - 80% in some cases, and more and more enterprises have "nothing to do".
In the insurance policy and order grabbing, enterprises have formed fierce vicious competition, leading to a big shuffle and elimination in the industry.
On April 13, a person in charge of an enterprise in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, said that the price of local yarn had recently dropped by 500-600 yuan / ton, of which the price of oec12s for air spinning had dropped to 12900 yuan / ton, and the price of c21s for common combs was around 18000 yuan / ton.
Even so, companies still have no orders, which means cotton prices will be kept down.
To sum up, although cotton has stopped falling and rebounded recently, the market is still bearish, which does not support the sharp rise of cotton, and the industry is still cautious to avoid unnecessary losses.
Source: China textile net, China cotton net, Beijing Business Daily
